BEAR MARKET UPDATES: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 surged after a cooler-than-expected CPI report Nov. 10, with a bullish charge sending the market back into a confirmed uptrend.
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Still, market indexes are volatile, as underlined by the fact IBD placed its market outlook at “uptrend under pressure” after the Nov. 2 sell-offs. This harsh sell-off in heavy volume put a major dent in the fledgling rally, though it has shown resilience by battling back. IBD’s current outlook is “confirmed uptrend.”
Cooler consumer inflation data a couple of weeks ago rejuvenated the markets and cut the distribution-day count for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, now down to one on both the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
Recent gains looked set to extend further on cooler wholesale inflation, but a double outlook from Micron Technologies (MU) on Nov. 16 and the hawkish Fed spoke took some wind out of the market’s sails.
Quarterly reports from discount and specialty retailers have boosted hopes that the US economy will avoid a deep recession even as the Federal Reserve makes it known it is still not yet done with raising interest rates in a bid to quell inflation.
The indexes all ended up turning in gains for the truncated Thanksgiving week. The S&P 500 continues to hold above short-term support levels with its sights set on the 200-day moving average, which is still a potential resistance level to watch. The Nasdaq composite is the laggard index at this point but continues to hold above the key 50-day moving average. It is the blue chips that are impressing the most, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the week up 1.7% and clearing its moving averages. Meanwhile, more stocks are finding their way on key lists in the IBD Leaderboard, an encouraging sign.
All in all, now is the time to get back into the market but not too quickly. Exposure should be increased in a measured fashion.
Investors Have New Opportunity
During a market correction, investors need to avoid buying stocks. But with the market returning to confirm the uptrend status now is a time to consider new buys, even though you should get in gradually. Focus on fundamentally strong stocks coming out of sound chart patterns. It is key to keep your thoughts about you given the current challenging nature of the market. Stay disciplined and stick to sound buy and sell rules. See More Stock Market News
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By definition, bear markets are always painful. Unlike in bull markets where most stocks go up in price, in a bear market, the fans come out to drag most stocks down. In fact, history shows that three out of four stocks will decline during a bear market.
The silver lining is a bear market eventually setting the stage for a robust new uptrend. Like a forest fire that wipes out the old trees to make room for new growth, bearish periods ultimately establish a new crop of stocks to buy and watch. And as that unfolds, such names will begin to pop up on stock lists like the IBD 50, Big Cap 20, Sector Leaders and IPO Leaders.
But as the bear market continues to play out, investors should focus on two key objectives. First, stay protected by learning when to sell stocks to cut losses and capture profits. Second, prepare to profit when the market turns around.
To do that, be sure to read The Big Picture and Market Pulse each day to track market trends and leading stocks. You can also monitor the latest action with Stock Market Today, updated multiple times throughout each trading day.
You’ll also find coverage of economic news, industry trends and psychological market indicators to see what’s happening in both bear and bull markets. Scroll down for more bear market basics.
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What Is A Bear Market?
Wall Street defines a bear market as a decline of more than 20% from the previous high in the stock market indexes.
During a bear market, the headlines will focus on negative news, whether it’s declining economic growth, geopolitical upheaval, cultural and legal turmoil, or some combination of all three.
That can wreak havoc on investors’ portfolios as well as investor psychology.
While in a bear market, it’s best to avoid buying stocks since most will follow the general market trend and head lower. But it’s also important to avoid getting too bearish and negative to the point where you ignore the stock market.
The market trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point.
When it comes to investing in stocks, one of the biggest mistakes investors can throw in the towel right when we hit a bear market bottom and the indexes find support and start to surge.
Bear Markets Vs. Intermediate Market Corrections
The difference between a bear market and an intermediate correction is the depth of the decline. In a bear market, the indexes fall more than 20%. An intermediate market correction is defined as a shallower decline, typically of around 10% to 15%, but certainly less than 20%.
A bear market is a like a reset button. It wipes the slate clean and resets the base counts of all stocks.
After the market indexes have emerged from an extended downturn and made a substantial climb (known as the first leg up), at some point the market will pull back. A pullback of around 10% — 15% (ie, less than 20%) is considered a normal market correction.
The best gains typically come from stock breakouts during the early stages of a bull market. Once the indexes have gone through multiple market corrections and stocks have formed multiple chart patterns, the underlying bull market starts to run out of steam. The indexes will become more volatile.
At some point, the decline will be deep enough to form a bear, and the cyclical process begins again.
How To Identify A Bear Market Bottom
At some point, a bear market will end and a new bull market will begin. But how can you tell when the market bottom has been reached? The key signal to look for is called a follow-through day.
Here’s what to look for.
During a downturn or market correction, look for an attempted rally. Day 1 of an attempted rally begins when a major index closes up from the previous session. Neither the volume nor the size of the gain matters. The only thing that matters is that the attempted rally stays alive. For the attempted rally to stay alive, the index cannot undercut the low of Day 1.
On Day 4 or later of the still-intact attempted rally, the Nasdaq or S&P 500 must deliver a strong gain in volume up from the previous day. That big gain in rising volume is the follow-through day. It confirms that a new uptrend is underway.
While not all follow-through days lead to a sustained new uptrend, no bull market has ever started without one. So rather than try to predict when the indexes will find a bear market bottom, wait for this key signal to appear.
It’s a sign to start getting back into the market gradually — not all at once. If the uptrend holds and growth stocks gain traction, you can start to invest in stocks more aggressively.
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